International Business Machines

IBM · NYSE

$241.92+$5.53 (+2.34%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $236.39

IBM analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 19 analysts over the last 12 months. 63% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy12
Hold6
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 26 analysts

Average $247.56 (+2.3% upside)

Low: $175.74
Now: $241.92
High: $367.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

IBM analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$190.00 → $238.00	63%
RBC Capital	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$270.00	32%
Truist Securities	Oct 9, 2026	Initiates	Hold	$240.00	41%
Susquehanna	Aug 31, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$225.00 → $235.00	42%
Citigroup	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$255.00 → $245.00	71%
Susquehanna	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$303.00 → $225.00	42%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$293.00 → $190.00	63%
BMO Capital	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$270.00 → $230.00	66%
RBC Capital	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$270.00	32%
Barclays	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$288.00 → $262.00	56%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

IBM is supported by a durable, recurring revenue base and a portfolio that is increasingly software-led, with roughly 80% of software revenue recurring and ARR accelerating to 8% y/y, while Red Hat, WebSphere, DB2, HashiCorp, and Confluent show steady demand. Management’s maintained FCF guidance, confidence in closing 30-40% of deferred deals, and comments that productivity initiatives can still drive a $1B increase in FCF even after a weaker Q2 suggest resilient cash generation despite short-term capex reprioritization. Its hybrid cloud, AI, and consulting franchises, reinforced by record z17 momentum and no evidence of mainframe migration pressure, position IBM to benefit from enterprise modernization and sustain profitable growth.

Bear case

IBM is facing a weaker fundamental setup as FY/26 revenue growth was cut to 4-5% cc from consensus of 4.7%, while management’s commentary offered little visibility after the 7/14 pre-release and left investors relying on a data-void period until late January 2027. The downside case is driven by competitive pressure, customer churn, and the risk that IBM cannot attract new logos or adapt quickly enough, especially as AI-era budget constraints and rising compute costs may be disrupting enterprise software and hardware spending. Mainframe exposure adds risk because the ecosystem represents about 20% of revenue and TPS revenue was estimated down 10-12% y/y in 3Q, suggesting even high-margin segments may be losing workload momentum despite stronger z17 shipments.

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