Imperial Oil

IMO · TORONTO

$134.99−$0.25 (−0.18%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 8:00 PM ET

Prev close $135.24

IMO analyst rating

SellConsensus of 1 analyst over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold0
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $109.52 (−18.9% downside)

Low: $81.53
Now: $134.99
High: $151.76

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

IMO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Feb 23, 2026	Downgrade	Sector Perform → Underperform	$116.00	80%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Imperial Oil is expected to merit a premium valuation because of its long-life, low-decline upstream portfolio, diversified cash flow from refining and chemicals, and consistently strong operating performance. At 10.1x 2027E EV/DACF and a 7.4% 2027E FCF yield, it screens above the peer-group averages of 5.9x and 11.0%, yet its historically high multiple is supported by strong ROCE, a pristine balance sheet, and very low cost of debt through ExxonMobil. Under futures pricing, the 2026 debt-adjusted cash flow multiple of 8.4x and 9% equity FCF yield still point to ample free cash flow generation and abundant shareholder returns despite sector-wide comparisons.

Bear case

Imperial Oil is facing a negative fundamental setup because its earnings and valuation remain highly exposed to unexpected crude oil price swings, foreign exchange moves, and government actions on royalties, taxes, and environmental policy. The updated 2026-27 outlook only modestly improved downstream cash flow to $3.81 billion and still points to 2026 equivalent production of 446,000 boe/d, slightly below the midpoint of its 441,000-460,000 boe/d guidance range, which suggests limited operating upside. Broader risks such as volatile commodity prices, cost overruns, supply-demand imbalances, and infrastructure outages further cloud visibility and make execution less dependable.

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