Samsara

IOT · NYSE

$42.39+$2.09 (+5.19%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $40.30

IOT analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 76% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy13
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 24 analysts

Average $53.17 (+25.4% upside)

Low: $39.39
Now: $42.39
High: $63.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

IOT analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Jefferies	Oct 5, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$50.00	43%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$45.00	50%
BNP Paribas	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$40.00 → $55.00	52%
Piper Sandler	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$40.00 → $46.00	51%
Truist Securities	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$38.00 → $48.00	95%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$43.00 → $49.00	63%
JP Morgan	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$48.00 → $52.00	63%
B of A Securities	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$47.00 → $55.00	33%
BMO Capital	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$44.00 → $54.00	51%
Wells Fargo	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$50.00 → $58.00	49%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Samsara is appealing fundamentally because it combines top-quintile revenue growth of 20%+ with improving operating leverage, supported by a subscription-heavy model and a large, underpenetrated opportunity in connected operations. Its durable land-and-expand motion is reinforced by rising enterprise adoption, including $100k+ and $1m+ ARR customers, ~115% NRR, and an installed base of millions of cameras and sensors generating billions of real-world data points daily. The bullish case is further strengthened by founder-led innovation and hardware-plus-software defensibility, which create switching costs, proprietary data moats, and multiple emerging products that can expand the company’s TAM by ~3x.

Bear case

Samsara is viewed negatively because its growth thesis is vulnerable to autonomous vehicles, OEMs bundling similar connected solutions, and an increasingly crowded market where AI lowers barriers to entry and can compress multiples if growth slows. Although the company has raised FY27 revenue guidance to $2,043-$2,047 million and expects GAAP profitability in FY27, management also now expects FY27 FCF margin to decline 100 bps year over year as it buys more inventory and faces higher memory, storage, and shipping costs. Its hardware-dependent model adds supply-chain risk, margin pressure, and operational friction, while the stated downside scenario implies slower CY26-27 revenue growth, weaker renewal and expansion rates, and a lower valuation multiple.

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