Klarna Group

KLAR · NYSE

$13.15+$0.07 (+0.54%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:47 PM ET

Prev close $13.08

KLAR analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 18 analysts over the last 12 months. 44% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold10
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 24 analysts

Average $20.85 (+58.6% upside)

Low: $14.14
Now: $13.15
High: $48.64

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

KLAR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$18.00 → $16.00	51%
Loop Capital	Sep 9, 2026	Initiates	Hold	$18.00	—
Scotiabank	Sep 2, 2026	Initiates	Sector Perform	$16.00	19%
Wolfe Research	Aug 25, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Peer Perform	—	59%
UBS	Aug 24, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	$23.00 → $16.00	45%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$26.00 → $21.00	52%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$21.00 → $17.00	57%
BMO Capital	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$19.00 → $15.00	51%
TD Cowen	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$19.00 → $18.00	51%
Barclays	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$20.00 → $16.00	49%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

Klarna is positioned as a structurally attractive BNPL and commerce-enablement platform because its transaction-centric model monetizes both merchant demand and consumer usage, rather than relying mainly on consumer fees or interest income like many peers. Its scale, global brand, and closed-loop payment rails support higher conversion and average order value for merchants, while the expansion of Fair Financing is improving unit economics through earlier fair-value recognition, a 2bps benefit to FY TMD guidance, and an implied $40-$50m uplift in TMD. The business also shows meaningful growth optionality, with Fair Financing GMV up 138% Y/Y, receivables up 49% Y/Y, 77% of GMV still interest-free Pay-in-X in 1Q, and the U.S. contributing 21% of GMV and 27% of Transaction Margin Dollars.

Bear case

Klarna is viewed negatively because its FY guide implies a slowdown from the first half, with weaker GMV driven by softness in Germany and about $600mn of the lower GMV outlook tied to currency movement, while total revenue take rate is expected to fall ~10bps for the full year and another ~8bps in ’27 as fair value accounting rolls through. The company is also shifting toward longer-duration Fair Financing, but higher provisioning expenses, limited in-house underwriting, and pending Pagaya litigation raise credit-risk concerns just as the business expands beyond its core low-barrier BNPL model. Despite last year’s $128B GMV and roughly breakeven earnings in the first quarter, Klarna still reported a GAAP loss last year, underscoring a fragile path to sustainable profitability amid intense competition and higher processing and servicing costs.

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