Carmax

KMX · NYSE

$53.82+$2.17 (+4.20%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 6:30 PM ET

Prev close $51.65

KMX analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 18% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold12
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 17 analysts

Average $61.37 (+14.0% upside)

Low: $36.36
Now: $53.82
High: $103.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

KMX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
B of A Securities	Oct 15, 2026	Upgrade	Underperform → Buy	$50.00 → $65.00	59%
Barclays	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$61.00 → $67.00	28%
UBS	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$57.00 → $62.00	39%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$47.00 → $53.00	50%
Truist Securities	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$50.00 → $60.00	62%
RBC Capital	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$45.00 → $56.00	54%
Baird	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$64.00 → $70.00	45%
BNP Paribas	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$33.00 → $48.00	56%
B of A Securities	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$45.00 → $50.00	54%
Stephens & Co.	Sep 25, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$66.00 → $74.00	54%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

CarMax is well positioned because its no-haggle model, proprietary buying and pricing systems, and omni-channel platform are translating into stronger conversion and better unit momentum, with retail comp units up 13% y/y and total unit sales of 227.4k in the quarter cited. The firm’s ability to defend margins while retail GPU fell only about 5% to $2,105, alongside roughly 510 bps of SG&A leverage and a planned $200M exit-rate savings program, suggests durable operating improvement rather than one-off demand. Additional upside comes from FTC pricing enforcement, which levels the playing field for its all-in pricing approach, plus resumed buybacks and expanding service-fee income that should support earnings and capital returns.

Bear case

CarMax is viewed negatively because its rapid retail growth may face difficult year-over-year comparisons, especially after benefiting from pricing initiatives and FTC transparency effects that may not repeat. Used-car affordability remains strained, with prices about 40% above pre-pandemic levels and monthly payments roughly 50% higher, while over 70% of unit sales depend on financing, leaving the business exposed to tighter credit, higher rates, and weaker consumer demand. Although it is the largest U.S. used-vehicle retailer, its estimated 3.6% market share in calendar 2025 underscores a fragmented and highly competitive market where margin pressure, loan losses, and cyclical demand could limit earnings durability.

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