Knife River

KNF · NYSE

$51.18+$1.60 (+3.23%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $49.58

KNF analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 67% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold2
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $85.36 (+66.8% upside)

Low: $62.62
Now: $51.18
High: $123.90

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

KNF analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$73.00 → $63.00	46%
RBC Capital	Oct 9, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Sector Perform	$103.00 → $58.00	49%
Wells Fargo	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$62.00 → $54.00	55%
B. Riley Securities	Sep 25, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$105.00 → $65.00	47%
Oppenheimer	Sep 24, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$90.00 → $80.00	61%
Wells Fargo	Sep 9, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$73.00 → $62.00	55%
JP Morgan	Sep 2, 2026	Downgrade	Neutral → Underweight	$80.00 → $73.00	46%
DA Davidson	Aug 25, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$85.00	52%
JP Morgan	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$95.00 → $80.00	46%
RBC Capital	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$107.00 → $103.00	29%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Knife River is supported by an aggregates-led, vertically integrated model that captures margin across crushed stone, sand, gravel, ready-mix, asphalt, and contracting while serving mid-sized, high-growth US markets. Management’s EDGE strategy targets roughly +400bp EBITDA margin expansion to 20% through efficiency, pricing discipline, growth capex, and M&A, and demand is underpinned by public infrastructure spending, including the IIJA and DOT outlays. Even with near-term headwinds, shares appear undemanding at about 8x to 9x EBITDA, while solid 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $520M to $560M and improving sector construction trends support long-term upside.

Bear case

Knife River is facing a negative outlook because weaker public bid lettings, fewer high-margin late-season opportunities, and project delays in Texas and Hawaii are pressuring contracting activity just as diesel costs have risen about 40% since early July. Management and analysts now expect H2’26 contracting services margin to fall to 9%-10%, while the Q2 fuel spike already created a $6m EBITDA headwind and could imply roughly a $14m YoY drag in Q3 if fuel stays elevated. With estimates lowered, EV/EBITDA multiples reset, and guidance vulnerable to weather, funding uncertainty, and execution risk in the Competitive EDGE strategy, the company’s earnings recovery looks slower and less durable than previously expected.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.