LGI Homes

LGIH · NASDAQ

$43.10+$2.03 (+4.94%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $41.07

LGIH analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 2 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold0
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $84.15 (+95.2% upside)

Low: $72.72
Now: $43.10
High: $97.65

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

LGIH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Apr 30, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$38.00 → $41.00	60%
Citizens	Jan 7, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$85.00 → $95.00	27%

The case for and against

Updated Mar 27, 2026

Bull case

LGI Homes Inc. has demonstrated a significant improvement in its net margins, moving from a low of 1.8% in the first quarter of 2025 to 8.7% in the second quarter of the same year, indicating potential stabilization in profitability. The company's diverse product offerings, including entry-level, move-up, and luxury homes, cater to a broad market segment and position it well to capitalize on rising demand due to job growth and increased consumer confidence. Additionally, a potential reduction in discounting and incentives from competitors could serve as a catalyst for further revenue growth, enhancing LGI's competitive positioning within the entry-level home market.

Bear case

LGI Homes Inc. is experiencing a decline in unit closing estimates, with projections for F4Q25 dropping to 1,108 homes and a reduction in the absorption pace to 2.6 closings per month, a decrease from previous levels. In F3Q25, unit closings fell short of expectations, landing below the Refinitiv estimate of 1,200 homes and reflecting a 41% year-over-year decline in absorption pace compared to F3Q24. Furthermore, the competitive landscape in Texas has adversely impacted the company's Central segment, leading to lower net margins compared to historical averages, further contributing to the negative outlook on the stock.

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