Lumentum Holdings

LITE · NASDAQ

$822.51−$12.00 (−1.44%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $834.51

LITE analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 18 analysts over the last 12 months. 78% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy14
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 31 analysts

Average $1,151.43 (+40.0% upside)

Low: $606.00
Now: $822.51
High: $1,470.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

LITE analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Rosenblatt	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,300.00	56%
Stifel	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,100.00 → $1,232.00	73%
Bernstein	Sep 30, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$1,220.00	0%
Citigroup	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,200.00 → $1,400.00	71%
Rosenblatt	Sep 23, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$1,300.00	56%
Deutsche Bank	Sep 1, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$1,200.00	57%
Evercore ISI Group	Aug 31, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$1,100.00	65%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$900.00 → $1,000.00	62%
TD Cowen	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$800.00 → $820.00	65%
JP Morgan	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$1,165.00 → $1,280.00	58%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Lumentum Holdings is well positioned because it leads in high-margin indium phosphide lasers, a category that should capture more share as FCC rules on 3.2T transceivers favor U.S. component content and limit Chinese laser competition in U.S. AI data center networks. The company’s fundamentals are also improving through strong demand that remains above supply, with EML demand about 30% ahead of capacity, non-GAAP gross margin above 50%, and roughly 80% of laser output now covered by long-term agreements. Management’s raised FY28 earnings forecast to $40 versus consensus near $34, plus expected gains in Google OCS share to about 80% in 2027 and rising CPO/NPO adoption, reinforces confidence in sustained revenue, margin, and share gains.

Bear case

Lumentum Holdings is exposed to a fragile demand backdrop because its core Optical Communications business depends on hyperscaler and carrier capex, which could weaken if major cloud providers slow AI network spending or if the macro environment softens. Its fundamentals are also vulnerable to supply-chain volatility, as tight semiconductor supply, vendor de-commits, and higher logistics costs have already caused revenue and gross-margin shortfalls and could again prevent the company from meeting forecasts. On top of that, rapid technology shifts toward co-packaged optics and rising competition from private CPO and OCS players create execution, timing, and pricing pressure that could erode content, margins, and earnings power.

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