Live Oak Bancshares

LOB · NYSE

$35.36+$0.91 (+2.64%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $34.45

LOB analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 60% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 5 analysts

Average $47.69 (+34.9% upside)

Low: $45.45
Now: $35.36
High: $51.45

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

LOB analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$45.00 → $41.00	54%
Piper Sandler	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$46.00 → $38.00	37%
TD Cowen	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$49.00 → $44.00	47%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$44.00 → $45.00	54%
TD Cowen	Jul 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$47.00 → $49.00	47%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$45.00 → $47.00	33%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$41.00 → $44.00	54%
TD Cowen	Apr 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$51.00 → $47.00	57%
Piper Sandler	Apr 27, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$40.00 → $41.00	37%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Apr 24, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$44.00 → $42.00	33%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Live Oak Bancshares is viewed favorably because 2Q26 core EPS of $0.77 beat Street estimates, driven by strong pre-provision performance, 6 bps of NIM expansion, and balance sheet growth, while management expects NIM to stay in the 3.30%-3.35% range in 2H26. Its loan engine remains a key strength, with total originations up 13% q/q annualized and pipelines at a record $4.6B, supporting low-teens loan growth and double-digit NII growth in FY26 and likely beyond. The outlook is further strengthened by improving deposit mix, with noninterest-bearing deposits up 43% y/y to 4% of total deposits, and signs that credit costs may normalize in the $20mm-$25mm range as the recent SBA credit cycle fades.

Bear case

Live Oak Bancshares is facing a weaker fundamental setup as 3Q26 and 2026 EPS estimates were cut to $0.63 and $2.80, reflecting higher provisioning, lower net interest income, and the removal of an $8.7M venture warrant gain from core earnings. Credit quality is deteriorating, with the NCO ratio rising to 0.80%, NPAs increasing 6% q/q to 3.00% of assets, and nonguaranteed NPAs climbing 23% q/q, while the distillery portfolio exit may continue to pressure charge-offs and reserves. The outlook is further clouded by a lower 2027 EPS estimate of $3.80, a reduced multiple amid peer contraction, and risks from higher rates, a deeper recession, and SBA-related business disruption.

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