Mda Space

MDA · TORONTO

$27.61+$0.81 (+3.02%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:54 PM ET

Prev close $26.80

MDA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $45.22 (+63.8% upside)

Low: $23.66
Now: $27.61
High: $65.59

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MDA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
JP Morgan	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$43.00 → $50.00	64%
RBC Capital	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$60.00	59%
RBC Capital	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$58.00 → $60.00	59%
JP Morgan	May 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$34.00 → $43.00	64%
RBC Capital	May 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$50.00 → $58.00	59%
Jefferies	Apr 6, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$41.00	27%
JP Morgan	Apr 6, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$34.00	64%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

MDA Space is well positioned as a profitable, government- and defense-linked space company with a roughly $4.0B backlog, a ~$40B five-year opportunity pipeline, and about 50% of that pipeline tied to defense/government work. Recent wins, including the 27-satellite Lightspeed award bringing total Lightspeed orders to 225 satellites, plus the Radarsat follow-ons and Canada’s ESCP-P program, support a stronger revenue and booking outlook while highlighting MDA’s role as a prime contractor on key missions. Despite 2026 capex of about $250M tempering near-term free cash flow, 2Q26 revenue growth of 34%, adjusted EBITDA of $96M, and 19.3% margins show execution strength and suggest further upside if pipeline conversion continues.

Bear case

MDA Space is facing a negative setup because the market appears to be pricing in the contribution from the pending BCT and CLS acquisitions even though neither has closed, while management’s revised 2026 guide implies a sharp deceleration to about 2% growth in 2H26 year over year. Although 2Q26 delivered strong growth with adjusted EBITDA of $96.3M and revenue up 34% year over year, free cash flow was weak at -$150M due to working-capital swings and higher capex, highlighting earnings-quality and liquidity volatility. The company also carries execution, supply-chain, funding, political, labor, and M&A integration risks, and the downside framework points to roughly $3.1B of revenue, $580M of EBITDA, and an 18.5% margin in 2028E under a lower 12x multiple.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.