Medline

MDLN · NASDAQ

$35.46+$0.27 (+0.77%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:33 PM ET

Prev close $35.19

MDLN analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 24 analysts over the last 12 months. 83% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy20
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 29 analysts

Average $45.33 (+27.8% upside)

Low: $34.34
Now: $35.46
High: $57.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MDLN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Barclays	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$45.00 → $43.00	53%
UBS	Sep 25, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$45.00 → $43.00	70%
BTIG	Aug 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$55.00	46%
JP Morgan	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$53.00 → $46.00	54%
Tigress Financial	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$62.00 → $55.00	56%
Wells Fargo	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$45.00 → $34.00	59%
TD Cowen	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$53.00 → $45.00	62%
RBC Capital	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$53.00 → $46.00	67%
Truist Securities	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$56.00 → $47.00	37%
Evercore ISI Group	Aug 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$48.00 → $39.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Medline is favored because its vertically integrated model combines proprietary manufacturing with third-party distribution, creating higher-margin Medline Brand revenue and a differentiated one-stop platform for healthcare customers. Its 1,300+ Prime Vendor relationships, ~$375 billion global TAM, and large conversion pool of about $5 billion of third-party spend support durable top-line growth and long-term margin expansion as more supply-chain volume shifts into Medline Brand products. Despite near-term cost pressures, the company’s scale, 2024 revenue growth of 10%, and strong cash generation underpin a positive outlook, with automation, AI-enabled logistics, and broad customer retention expected to improve returns over time.

Bear case

Medline is facing pressure from multiple fronts: it absorbed an approximately $89 million revenue headwind in 2Q:26, withheld tariff refunds from IEEPA, and warned that two-thirds of roughly $200 million of cost inflation may hit in 4Q:26, raising EBITDA risk. The June 11, 2026 Tracy fire added a $336 million pre-insurance loss and another $50 million to $100 million of second-half costs, while the 58.3% decline in Q2 net income to $139 million underscores how operational shocks can quickly compress profitability. Beyond these near-term issues, Medicaid cuts, expiring subsidies, tighter hospital budgets, tariff exposure, and a material debt load could pressure volumes, margins, and deleveraging.

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