Magnolia Oil & Gas

MGY · NYSE

$25.46−$0.01 (−0.04%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $25.47

MGY analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 19 analysts over the last 12 months. 63% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy12
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 19 analysts

Average $33.60 (+32.0% upside)

Low: $27.27
Now: $25.46
High: $39.90

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MGY analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Scotiabank	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Sector Outperform	$31.00	59%
Wells Fargo	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$36.00 → $30.00	40%
Truist Securities	Oct 2, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$34.00 → $35.00	63%
Truist Securities	Sep 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$33.00 → $34.00	63%
JP Morgan	Sep 8, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Overweight	$32.00 → $33.00	52%
Seaport Global	Sep 3, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	—	67%
Johnson Rice	Aug 17, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Accumulate	$33.00 → $32.00	59%
Wells Fargo	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$31.00 → $36.00	78%
Citigroup	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$29.00 → $27.00	56%
Susquehanna	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Positive	$36.00 → $37.00	56%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Magnolia Oil & Gas is viewed favorably because its disciplined capital program supports steady 4% to 5% production growth while preserving a low reinvestment rate and strong cash generation. Its WildFire Energy acquisition adds 810,000 net acres in Giddings, lifts pro forma oil cut from 40% to 50%, extends inventory life to about 11 years, and is expected to be 13% accretive to 2027 CFPS. The company also shows financial strength with deleveraging ahead of schedule, about 1.0x net debt/EBITDA by 2027 under assumptions, a 12% free cash flow yield, and continued share repurchases that reinforce shareholder returns.

Bear case

Magnolia Oil & Gas is viewed negatively because its earnings and free cash flow remain highly exposed to volatile commodity pricing and geopolitics, and as a totally unhedged producer, a decline in oil or gas prices would quickly pressure returns and profitability. The recent $1.1B equity raise and higher leverage tied to the Wildfire transaction also weaken the financial setup, prompting a 3.5% cut to 2027 CFPS estimates and a lower valuation framework despite the deal being about 13% accretive. Even with a pristine balance sheet, operating in an emerging basin and the risk of M&A dilution or missed production targets create a less reliable outlook for steady shareholder value creation.

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