McGraw Hill

MH · NYSE

$14.27+$0.40 (+2.88%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $13.87

MH analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 89% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $17.95 (+25.8% upside)

Low: $15.15
Now: $14.27
High: $25.20

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
BTIG	Sep 22, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$17.00	45%
UBS	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$14.00 → $15.00	51%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$18.00 → $16.00	48%
BMO Capital	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$16.00 → $17.00	60%
BTIG	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00 → $17.00	45%
Needham	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00	46%
Needham	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00	46%
BMO Capital	Jul 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$19.00 → $16.00	60%
BTIG	Jun 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00	45%
Goldman Sachs	Jun 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00 → $17.00	43%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

McGraw Hill is benefiting from a powerful combination of secular demand in K-12 and higher education, with 44 states now aligned to the science of reading, a potential ~$6B K-12 professional learning market opened by TeachFX, and ROAR adding an estimated $1B+ TAM expansion. Its digital transformation is increasingly visible in the numbers, with 2Q27 revenue of $549.9MM, adjusted EBITDA of $207.0MM, a 37.7% margin, and digital revenue up 8.7%, while recurring revenue reached $549.9MM. The company is also improving its balance sheet and operating profile, with ratings upgrades to BB-/B1, expected leverage below 4x through FY28, and a path toward 2.0x-2.5x leverage by CY27 supported by mid-30s EBITDA margins and ~75% EBITDA-to-FCF conversion.

Bear case

McGraw Hill is facing a negative fundamental setup because worsening enrollment trends, especially in Higher Education, threaten demand in its most discretionary segment while also creating uncertainty across K-12 and post-secondary markets. Competitive pressures from Pearson, Cengage, Elsevier, open educational resources, and state-developed curricula are eroding pricing power and market share, and genAI may further disintermediate incumbent courseware by lowering barriers to entry and enabling cheaper alternatives. Its heavy reliance on proprietary intellectual property and a significant debt load leave it vulnerable if cash flows weaken, since the company must convert earnings into free cash flow efficiently to maintain flexibility amid seasonal adoption cycles and rising disruption risk.

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