Mach Natural Resources LP

MNR · NYSE

$10.76−$0.03 (−0.28%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $10.79

MNR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 60% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy2
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $17.72 (+64.7% upside)

Low: $14.14
Now: $10.76
High: $24.15

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MNR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Raymond James	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Strong Buy	$19.00 → $16.00	62%
Stifel	Sep 10, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$15.00	32%
Raymond James	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Strong Buy	$18.00 → $19.00	62%
Raymond James	Jun 18, 2026	Maintains	Strong Buy	$20.00 → $18.00	62%
Truist Securities	Mar 24, 2026	Initiates	Buy → Hold	$14.00	63%
Keybanc	Jan 16, 2026	Downgrade	Overweight → Sector Weight	—	49%
Stifel	Jan 6, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$22.00 → $18.00	57%

The case for and against

Updated Jul 31, 2025

Bull case

Mach Natural Resources LP exhibits a positive financial outlook due to several key factors, including a revised distribution estimate for 2025 of $2.74 per unit, driven by cost savings from refinancing and higher commodity prices. The company benefits from a lower interest expense and reduced net leverage of 0.8x, enhancing its ability to return capital to unitholders while positioning itself for future acquisitions. Additionally, the recent acquisition at a discount is expected to streamline drilling operations and supports Mach's strategic roll-up approach, presenting a compelling investment opportunity in the current favorable natural gas market.

Bear case

Mach Natural Resources LP faces a negative outlook primarily due to its significant exposure to fluctuations in commodity prices, which can severely impact its financial health and cash flow. Additionally, the company's operations in the Anadarko Basin introduce geographic concentration risks and are subject to adverse weather conditions that can disrupt production and increase costs. Furthermore, potential regulatory changes proposed by political leaders, such as carbon taxes or pipeline permit denials, could pose further challenges to the company's profitability and overall market position.

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