Mercury Systems

MRCY · NASDAQ

$74.53−$1.46 (−1.92%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $75.99

MRCY analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 9 analysts over the last 12 months. 67% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $119.32 (+60.1% upside)

Low: $78.78
Now: $74.53
High: $137.55

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MRCY analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Guggenheim	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$115.00	71%
Canaccord Genuity	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$106.00 → $128.00	31%
Truist Securities	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$109.00 → $120.00	0%
RBC Capital	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$105.00 → $120.00	59%
Baird	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$120.00 → $130.00	69%
Piper Sandler	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$126.00 → $131.00	41%
Piper Sandler	Aug 12, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$126.00	41%
JP Morgan	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$99.00 → $101.00	63%
Goldman Sachs	May 11, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$60.00 → $68.00	56%
Canaccord Genuity	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$102.00 → $106.00	31%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Mercury System is attractive because it has completed a turnaround under new management, with FY26 revenue of $984M, adjusted EBITDA of $150M, free cash flow of $68M, and debt reduced by $150M, signaling improving execution and balance-sheet strength. Its outlook is supported by record FY26 bookings of $1.5B, backlog of about $1.9B, and a book-to-bill above 2x, which together provide strong revenue visibility for FY27 and reinforce confidence in sustained growth. The company also benefits from defense modernization demand across radar, electronic warfare, missile defense, and secure processing, while margin expansion should follow as higher-margin production programs ramp and operational automation improves efficiency.

Bear case

Mercury System is highly exposed to U.S. defense spending and budget timing, so continuing resolutions, shutdown risk, and shifts in federal priorities can delay funding and weaken revenue visibility despite management execution. Customer concentration is another major weakness, with RTX, LMT, and NOC driving 36% of FY26 revenue and five customers representing 54% of receivables, leaving cash flow and bargaining power vulnerable to program slips. Even with revenue of $289.8M and record bookings of $659.6M, adjusted EBITDA margin still contracted 210 bps to 16.7% and recent GAAP losses, impairment charges, and fixed-price cost pressures suggest profitability remains fragile.

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