Mueller Water Products

MWA · NYSE

$21.99+$0.24 (+1.10%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $21.75

MWA analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 20% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold2
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $30.19 (+37.3% upside)

Low: $21.21
Now: $21.99
High: $36.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

MWA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Oppenheimer	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$32.00 → $30.00	49%
Goldman Sachs	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$29.00 → $24.00	46%
RBC Capital	Sep 17, 2026	Downgrade	Sector Perform → Underperform	$30.00 → $21.00	43%
RBC Capital	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$31.00 → $30.00	43%
Barclays	Jun 30, 2026	Initiates	Underweight	$25.00	29%
RBC Capital	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$30.00 → $31.00	43%
Oppenheimer	Feb 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$30.00 → $32.00	49%
RBC Capital	Feb 6, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$27.00 → $29.00	57%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Mueller Water Products is attractive because its core business is tied to essential municipal repair-and-replace spending, which supports roughly 60% of revenue and should remain resilient even as hydrant backlog normalization and softer residential demand weigh on near-term growth. It also has meaningful upside from specialty valves, a fast-growing category with double-digit data center and non-data center growth, plus a $140 million manufacturing modernization program that should improve efficiency, quality, and margins over time. Strong liquidity, about $500 million of cash and nearly $700 million of liquidity with no debt maturities until 2029, gives it flexibility for bolt-on M&A, share repurchases, and further investment while valuation remains discounted versus peers.

Bear case

Mueller Water Products is facing a negative setup because its earnings are highly exposed to municipal capex, which is modeled to decline about 10% in 2027 as ARPA funding expires at year-end 2026, while its 60%-65% municipal water revenue mix leaves little cushion versus peers with stronger backlogs or regulatory demand. Residential exposure, estimated at 25%-30% of revenue, is also under pressure from softer housing activity, with management expecting F2026 residential revenue to decline and no meaningful rebound assumed for F2027. Even after recent margin strength and a 9.5x 2027E EV/EBITDA valuation, consensus appears too optimistic versus the analyst’s lower F2027 revenue of $1,463 million and EBITDA of $378 million, and rising capex at 4%-5% of net sales may further weigh on free cash flow.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.