Nebius Group NV

NBIS · NASDAQ

$158.74−$0.43 (−0.27%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $159.17

NBIS analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 22 analysts over the last 12 months. 73% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy16
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 24 analysts

Average $295.12 (+85.9% upside)

Low: $145.44
Now: $158.74
High: $430.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NBIS analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Piper Sandler	Oct 21, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$237.00 → $185.00	50%
Rosenblatt	Oct 8, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$304.00	29%
William Blair	Sep 30, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	—	49%
BNP Paribas	Sep 24, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Outperform	$260.00 → $399.00	33%
Rothschild & Co	Sep 21, 2026	Initiates	Sell	$84.00	62%
Truist Securities	Sep 9, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$355.00	41%
DA Davidson	Aug 18, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$175.00 → $250.00	52%
Citigroup	Aug 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$278.00 → $324.00	57%
DA Davidson	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$175.00	52%
Baird	Aug 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$250.00 → $340.00	52%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

Nebius Group is viewed positively because it combines scarce AI infrastructure capacity with exceptional demand visibility, anchored by a vertically integrated model that controls data centers, servers, and a rapidly expanding contracted-power base of 5GW. Its 2Q26 results showed revenue of $582.3 million, up 454% year over year, adjusted EBITDA of $236.2 million, and margins of 40.6%, while management guided to $3.0–$3.4 billion of FY2026 revenue and $7–$9 billion of ARR exiting the year. The outlook is further strengthened by large customer wins, including a September 2025 Microsoft agreement for $17 billion of revenue, plus customer prepayments expected to exceed $9 billion in 2026, which should help fund growth despite heavy capex needs.

Bear case

Nebius Group is exposed to a highly capital-intensive model in which growth has outpaced profitability, with June unrestricted cash of $8.04 billion against $8.55 billion of debt, 2Q26 free cash flow of negative $3.41 billion, and net property and equipment rising to $13.05 billion. Despite demand being more than 4x oversubscribed and major contracts with Microsoft and Meta backing over half of a $40B-plus backlog, those agreements also create heavy execution risk, future delivery obligations, and customer-concentration vulnerability. The outlook remains negative because intensifying competition from hyperscalers and neoclouds, dependence on NVIDIA and scarce power, and the need for additional equity or debt financing could compress margins, dilute shareholders, and delay profitability.

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