National Cinemedia

NCMI · NASDAQ

$2.05−$0.03 (−1.44%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:10 PM ET

Prev close $2.08

NCMI analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 75% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $4.79 (+133.9% upside)

Low: $3.79
Now: $2.05
High: $6.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NCMI analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wedbush	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$6.00 → $5.00	56%
Wedbush	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$6.50 → $6.00	56%
Barrington Research	Jan 26, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$6.50 → $5.50	58%
B. Riley Securities	Jan 22, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$5.00 → $4.00	59%
Benchmark	Jan 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$7.00 → $6.00	54%
Barrington Research	Oct 31, 2025	Maintains	Outperform	$7.00 → $6.50	58%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

National CineMedia is positioned to benefit from a strengthening box office environment in 2026 and from ad dollars shifting toward highly targeted cinema inventory, while new self-serve, programmatic, and AI-driven local tools should support market share gains and higher CPMs. Its expanding digital lobby display footprint at about 80% of AMC locations, the VideoAmp partnership, and potential political and Captivate OOH revenue add multiple growth levers, and management’s $11 million annual expense cuts help offset rising ESA fees. Despite near-term timing noise in Q1, the company is expected to grow topline by LDD-Mteens% in 2026 with 200+ bps of margin expansion, supported by tax-deferred dividends and share repurchases that reinforce capital discipline.

Bear case

National CineMedia is facing a weak fundamental backdrop because its revenue depends heavily on advertising demand and movie attendance, both of which can deteriorate and directly pressure results. Competitive risks are also rising, particularly from Screenvision following exhibition industry consolidation, which could erode share and limit pricing power in cinema advertising and lobby-based offerings like The Noovie Show, CineLife Show, and LEN. In addition, gross margin contraction from a changing revenue mix, potential M&A disruption, and conflicts of interest with founding partner theater circuits all increase execution risk and make sustained profitability less certain.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.