nCino

NCNO · NASDAQ

$21.60+$1.25 (+6.14%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $20.35

NCNO analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 73% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy10
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $25.53 (+18.2% upside)

Low: $20.20
Now: $21.60
High: $29.40

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NCNO analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Stephens & Co.	Oct 16, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$26.00	52%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$24.00 → $25.00	35%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$23.00 → $25.00	57%
Truist Securities	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$19.00 → $20.00	50%
Barclays	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$22.00 → $23.00	66%
Citizens	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$23.00 → $25.00	45%
BTIG	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	—	61%
Needham	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$25.00	45%
Piper Sandler	Aug 24, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$22.00 → $25.00	73%
JP Morgan	Jun 22, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$16.00 → $17.00	36%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Ncino is supported by a stronger core subscription business, with 2Q results showing revenue of $161.0M, subscription revenue of $143.5M, non-GAAP operating margin of 25.4%, and billings up 13% y/y, all of which point to improving execution and expanding profitability. Early renewals on the new pricing model are especially constructive, with 48% of ACV already transitioned and 12 of the top 20 U.S. enterprise customers renewed, often with more than 10% ACV uplift, signaling durable customer value and a faster path to monetization of Banking Advisor and AI. Management’s raised FY27 subscription revenue, operating income, and free cash flow outlooks, alongside a $100M share repurchase authorization and a strong 24-month RPO of $938.0M, reinforce confidence in sustained growth and capital discipline.

Bear case

Ncino is facing a muted fundamental setup because F3Q27 revenue guidance of $161.25M-$163.25M and subscription revenue of $143.25M-$145.25M were only modestly above expectations, while the stock still fell ~6% afterward and is down 19% YTD. The company also confronts a competitive, fragmented financial-institutions software market, cyclical end-market risk, and execution uncertainty from its shift away from seat-based pricing, which could pressure retention and future growth. Although FY27 guidance improved to $644.0M-$647.0M revenue, $171.0M-$174.0M non-GAAP operating income, and $137.0M-$142.0M free cash flow, headwinds in consumer solutions, mortgage, and international sales limit confidence in a near-term reacceleration.

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