National Healthcare Properties

NHP · NASDAQ

$15.51−$0.29 (−1.84%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:50 PM ET

Prev close $15.80

NHP analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 60% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy6
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $11.14 (−28.2% downside)

Low: $9.44
Now: $15.51
High: $14.73

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NHP analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Oct 19, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$19.00 → $18.00	51%
Raymond James	Oct 13, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$20.00	52%
Wells Fargo	Sep 1, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$17.00 → $19.00	48%
Baird	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$17.00 → $18.00	39%
RBC Capital	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$15.00 → $17.00	56%
Citizens	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$18.00 → $21.00	39%
Wells Fargo	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$16.00 → $17.00	48%
Citizens	May 28, 2026	Initiates	Market Outperform	$18.00	39%
Wells Fargo	May 18, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$16.00	48%
Baird	May 18, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$17.00	39%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

National Healthcare is attractive because it is executing a clear shift from lower-growth OMF assets toward a SHOP-heavy portfolio, where same-store NOI growth is materially stronger and supported by favorable senior housing supply-demand fundamentals. The 2Q26 report validated that strategy, with normalized FAD per share of $0.18 ahead of expectations, same-store SHOP cash NOI up 20.1% year over year, occupancy at 84.1%, and margins expanding 230 bps, while 2026 SHOP same-store cash NOI guidance rose to 15.0%-18.0%. Fundamentally, the balance sheet has improved sharply after the IPO and refinancing, with net debt to annualized adjusted EBITDA at 4.6x, about $1B of liquidity, and increasing capital recycling from MOB sales into higher-yielding SHOP acquisitions, positioning earnings to accelerate further.

Bear case

National Healthcare is viewed negatively because its portfolio is still transitioning from lower-growth OMF assets to SHOP, a shift that depends on selling $528mm of OMF properties and funding about $400mm of SHOP acquisitions in 2026 with no execution missteps. The business also faces structural downside from SHOP/RIDEA operating risk, higher leverage, and limited scale, while same-store OMF cash NOI already declined 40 bps yr/yr to $20.2mm and OMF growth has lagged SHOP at 7.6% versus 24%. Further pressure comes from likely external capital needs, a 180-day lock-up on roughly 40% of the share base expiring on October 19, 2026, and regulatory and reimbursement risk that could hit tenant cash flows and dividend support.

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