Energy Vault Holdings

NRGV · NYSE

$2.75−$0.02 (−0.72%)TodayMarket closed ·
Prev close $2.77

NRGV analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 75% rate it a buy.
  • Strong buy0
  • Buy3
  • Hold0
  • Underperform0
  • Sell1

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $6.33 (+130.2% upside)

Low
$3.03
Now
$2.75
High
$8.43

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NRGV analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
FirmDateActionRating
CitigroupAug 20, 2026MaintainsBuy
Roth CapitalAug 12, 2026MaintainsBuy
Cantor FitzgeraldAug 12, 2026MaintainsOverweight
CitigroupJul 22, 2026UpgradeNeutral → Buy
CitigroupJun 11, 2026InitiatesNeutral
Cantor FitzgeraldMay 5, 2026InitiatesOverweight
Goldman SachsMar 19, 2026MaintainsSell
Goldman SachsNov 12, 2025MaintainsSell

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Energy Vault Hldgs is viewed positively because its business is shifting from a cyclical EPC/licensing model toward a more scalable, vertically integrated storage IPP and AI infrastructure platform, supported by differentiated software and modular “speed-to-power” capabilities. The 1.25 GW hyperscaler agreement in Texas validates customer demand for its integrated offering and is expected to contribute $500 million to $600 million of revenue between 2H 2026 and the end of 2027, while backlog rose 47% sequentially to $2.0 billion, with about 40% tied to near-term conversion and 60% to recurring owned-asset revenue. Q2 2026 revenue reached $17.4 million, up 104% year over year, gross margin hit 31.0%, and management raised full-year 2026 revenue guidance to $270 million to $310 million and gross margin guidance to 20% to 25%, reinforcing improving visibility and execution.

Bear case

Energy Vault Hldgs is facing a difficult fundamental setup because revenue remains highly dependent on the timing of Australia-based BESS deliveries, which drove 2Q26 sales to $17.4M after $21.9M in 1Q26 and implies a very back-end weighted 2H26 to reach the $290M midpoint of full-year 2026 guidance. Despite 31.0% GAAP gross margin and 38.6% adjusted gross margin, adjusted EBITDA loss widened to ($17.0M) as opex rose for commercial and operational expansion, showing that scale is still not translating into profitability. The outlook is further pressured by tariff and sourcing risk, including 155.9% U.S. tariff burden on China-sourced B-Vault products, which can compress margins, delay projects, and undermine backlog conversion.

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