NAPCO Security Technologies

NSSC · NASDAQ

$36.45+$0.54 (+1.50%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $35.91

NSSC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 3 analysts over the last 12 months. 100% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold0
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 8 analysts

Average $51.68 (+41.8% upside)

Low: $48.48
Now: $36.45
High: $57.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NSSC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Needham	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$49.00	59%
DA Davidson	May 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$52.00	49%
TD Cowen	May 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00 → $53.00	55%
DA Davidson	Feb 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00 → $52.00	49%
DA Davidson	Feb 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$50.00	49%
Needham	Feb 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$47.00 → $49.00	59%
Needham	Nov 20, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$47.00	59%
TD Cowen	Nov 4, 2025	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$43.00 → $50.00	55%
Needham	Nov 4, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$36.00 → $47.00	59%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 18, 2026

Bull case

NAPCO Security Techs is viewed positively because it combines a high-margin, recurring services engine with improving equipment execution, as subscription-like connectivity and fire radio revenue provide durable growth and best-in-class margins near 90%. Demand signals from large distributors and peers point to a healthy commercial security environment, while more disciplined discounting, a favorable mix, and pricing actions have lifted equipment gross margins toward the 30% area and supported stronger operating leverage. Its financial profile is also compelling, with roughly $125 million in cash, no debt, and strong free cash flow, giving management flexibility for dividends, organic investment, and potential accretive M&A.

Bear case

NAPCO Security Techs is facing a fundamentally challenged setup because a slower recovery in commercial security, fire alarms, and door-locking demand could pressure revenues, margins, and earnings, while weak school-security trends may also force estimate cuts. The company’s earnings recovery is further constrained by downside risk to equipment and service margins, higher operating expenses, and the lingering effects of a $16M litigation settlement that consumed about one quarter’s worth of free cash flow generation. In addition, material weaknesses in internal controls, restatement-related legal exposure, intense competition, reliance on distributor relationships, and manufacturing concentration in the Dominican Republic create multiple operational and financial risks that support a negative outlook.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.