Novavax

NVAX · NASDAQ

$11.43+$0.61 (+5.64%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $10.82

NVAX analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 50% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold2
Underperform1
Sell1

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $14.28 (+24.9% upside)

Low: $7.07
Now: $11.43
High: $26.25

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

NVAX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Sell	$7.00 → $8.00	60%
BTIG	Jun 11, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00	30%
TD Cowen	May 6, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$8.00 → $9.00	—
HC Wainwright & Co.	Feb 27, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$11.00 → $16.00	42%
BTIG	Jan 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$19.00	30%
JP Morgan	Nov 18, 2025	Maintains	Underweight	$7.00 → $6.00	48%
B. Riley Securities	Nov 10, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$18.00 → $16.00	47%
TD Cowen	Nov 4, 2025	Maintains	Hold	$8.00 → $7.00	68%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Oct 24, 2025	Initiates	Overweight	$18.00	28%
HC Wainwright & Co.	Oct 23, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$10.00 → $11.00	42%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 16, 2026

Bull case

Novavax is supported by Matrix-M, a rare human-use adjuvant with a potentially safer profile and broad applicability that could anchor multiple vaccine programs and deepen partnership interest across infectious disease and oncology. The Sanofi collaboration, four top-ten pharma MTAs, and rights to explore Matrix-M across 30+ fields suggest external validation of the platform, while Nuvaxovid’s encouraging sales of €16MM in Q1:26 and projected 19%-26% standalone COVID-19 market share in 2030 indicate meaningful commercial optionality. Financially, the company’s upside also benefits from a target for a $200MM core-expense run-rate, tiered royalties in the high-teens to low-20s, and potential EU revenue of about $93.3MM to $145.0MM, all of which support a positive fundamental outlook.

Bear case

Novavax is facing a structurally weaker COVID-19 vaccine market, with surveyed physicians projecting an 11% decline in vaccinated U.S. adults in the 2026-27 season and IQVIA data already indicating roughly a 26% decline in COVID-19 vaccine prescriptions through 12/26/25. New FDA/CDC guidelines implemented in '25 limiting access for people without risk factors, along with an estimated 19% market share for Nuvaxovid in 2030 by physicians and 26% by payors, suggest constrained adoption even in a standalone prevention category. Its outlook is further pressured by execution and regulatory risk across an early-stage R&D model, including potential failure of a combo vaccine, variant-specific boosters in FY25+, and broader threats such as pricing pressure, IP challenges, and negative U.S. regulatory developments.

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