Par Pacific Holdings

PARR · NYSE

$85.11+$2.09 (+2.52%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $83.02

PARR analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 71% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy5
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $84.66 (−0.5% downside)

Low: $65.65
Now: $85.11
High: $94.50

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

PARR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Goldman Sachs	Oct 15, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	$90.00 → $94.00	62%
Raymond James	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$90.00 → $104.00	72%
Mizuho	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$80.00 → $85.00	60%
TD Cowen	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$100.00 → $95.00	70%
Goldman Sachs	Jul 23, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$77.00 → $92.00	62%
TD Cowen	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$78.00 → $100.00	70%
Raymond James	Jul 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$80.00 → $85.00	72%
Mizuho	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$79.00 → $80.00	60%
UBS	Jul 8, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$60.00 → $65.00	60%
Mizuho	May 27, 2026	Upgrade	Neutral → Outperform	$58.00 → $79.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 23, 2025

Bull case

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. is experiencing a positive outlook due to significant improvements in regional margins, with Montana and Washington market indicators seeing dramatic increases from $7.07 and $4.15 per barrel in Q1 to $21.36 and $12.03 per barrel respectively in Q2. The company has also benefited from the earlier than anticipated completion of maintenance turnaround at its Wyoming refinery, which occurred in late April, further enhancing its operational efficiency. Consequently, the forecasts for 2Q25 and FY25 have been revised upward, projecting 2Q EPS and EBITDA estimates to increase to $0.84 and $106 million from $0.25 and $67 million, and FY25 EPS and EBITDA to improve from -$0.07 and $214 million to $1.64 and $327 million respectively.

Bear case

Par Pacific Holdings Inc. faces a challenging outlook due to anticipated capital expenditure (capex) reductions, with FY25 projected at approximately $225 million before normalizing to around $105 million in 2026, indicating potential constraints on future growth and investments. Additionally, the company is exposed to several significant risks, including reduced jet fuel demand in Hawaii, deteriorating market conditions in niche sectors, potential declines in product crack spreads, and increasing concerns regarding Asian refining margins. Coupled with limited liquidity and a lack of generalist interest, these factors contribute to a negative sentiment surrounding the company's financial stability and growth prospects.

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