Progressive

PGR · NYSE

$221.93+$2.82 (+1.29%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:45 PM ET

Prev close $219.11

PGR analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 27% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold10
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 25 analysts

Average $233.58 (+5.2% upside)

Low: $164.63
Now: $221.93
High: $329.70

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

PGR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$201.00 → $196.00	60%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$252.00 → $246.00	68%
Barclays	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$246.00 → $247.00	61%
JP Morgan	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$241.00 → $250.00	81%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Sep 18, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$250.00	68%
Mizuho	Sep 16, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$236.00 → $230.00	58%
UBS	Aug 27, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$225.00 → $234.00	68%
Wells Fargo	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$198.00 → $201.00	60%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 20, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$226.00 → $250.00	68%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Aug 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$220.00 → $200.00	62%

The case for and against

Updated Apr 3, 2026

Bull case

Progressive Insurance, the second-largest personal auto insurer in the United States, has nearly 27 million personal auto policies in force, which positions it strongly within a competitive market. The company's focus on prioritizing adequately profitable growth is reflected in its expected core loss ratio increasing year-over-year, demonstrating a strategic shift towards maintaining sustainable profitability amid fluctuating market conditions. Additionally, despite anticipated slowdowns in personal auto policy growth, historical industry trends suggest that underwriters' core loss ratios will improve, indicating a potentially positive trajectory for Progressive’s financial performance in the coming years.

Bear case

The analysis indicates a negative outlook on Progressive's stock primarily due to anticipated slower premium growth and an increase in the core loss ratio, leading to a reduced earnings estimate for 2025. The company is expected to experience a decline in policyholder growth rates as competitors' rate increases taper off, further exacerbated by seasonal loss trends and changes in claims filing behavior among insureds. Additionally, the company's declining earned rate increases and potential normalization of personal auto loss trends suggest a challenging operating environment, contributing to overall performance concerns.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.