Riot Platforms

Bull case

Riot Platforms is increasingly compelling because it has converted its large power footprint into long-duration, high-value contracted revenue, highlighted by a 20-year, $9.1B lease for 191 MW at Rockdale and an LOI covering its entire 1 GW Corsicana site. The company’s execution is improving as it delivered the first 25 MW to AMD on time and on budget, secured bridge financing, and used its own infrastructure and engineering capabilities to de-risk future buildouts. These deals imply strong economics with average annual revenue of about $520M from the Rockdale contracts, estimated NOI margins of 80%-90%, and a favorable mix shift beyond pure Bitcoin mining toward scalable AI data center infrastructure.

Bear case

• Riot Platforms is a capital-intensive Bitcoin miner whose revenues remain overwhelmingly exposed to Bitcoin’s spot price, making results highly volatile and vulnerable to any decline in BTC, faster network hash-rate growth, or shipment delays that could prevent it from meeting hash-rate guidance.
• Although total liquidity was $1.2bn, including $666m in Bitcoin and $547m in cash, the company is still selling all monthly production and drawing down its balance-sheet BTC, while adjusted EBITDA was only $4.9m in 2Q26 and margins fell to 2.8%, underscoring weak underlying profitability.
• Even with higher 2026 and 2027 revenue estimates, declining mining economics, higher corporate costs tied to the AI buildout, and risks from construction delays, Texas grid dependence, regulatory changes, and potential equity dilution support a negative fundamental outlook.