Republic Services

RSG · NYSE

$232.98+$3.95 (+1.72%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:45 PM ET

Prev close $229.03

RSG analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 19 analysts over the last 12 months. 47% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold10
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 27 analysts

Average $251.33 (+7.9% upside)

Low: $214.28
Now: $232.98
High: $285.60

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

RSG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$232.00 → $219.00	48%
CIBC	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Outperformer	$249.00 → $240.00	45%
Wolfe Research	Sep 15, 2026	Initiates	Peer Perform	—	59%
UBS	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$233.00 → $235.00	45%
Barclays	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$233.00 → $240.00	29%
Citigroup	Jul 10, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$247.00 → $259.00	76%
UBS	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$240.00 → $223.00	45%
Citigroup	May 12, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$253.00 → $247.00	76%
Argus Research	May 11, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Hold	—	65%
Barclays	May 11, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$227.00 → $233.00	29%

The case for and against

Updated Apr 17, 2026

Bull case

Republic Services has demonstrated a robust financial performance, with solid waste AEBITDA reported at $1.295 billion, reflecting a 34.3% margin that exceeded estimates and marked an increase of 150 basis points year-over-year. The company recorded a significant free cash flow (FCF) of $771 million, up 32% year-over-year, contributing to an improved valuation of 13.7x EV/EBITDA and a 4.0% FCF yield for 2026E, suggesting financial strength in alignment with peers. Additionally, with logistics demand stabilizing and an expanding growth pipeline for environmental solutions, Republic Services is poised for mid-single-digit revenue growth along with faster EBITDA, EPS, and FCF growth, further supporting a positive outlook.

Bear case

Republic Services's stock outlook is negatively impacted by significant declines in recycled commodity prices, which averaged -29% year-over-year, coupled with a 7% decline in Environmental Solutions revenue and a steep 26% decrease in EBITDA, primarily due to weakened demand in manufacturing and reduced landfill volumes. The company anticipates a $100 million revenue headwind in 2026 from event-driven sources that are not expected to recover, indicating a challenging environment with flat to slightly declining volume projections. Additionally, despite a modest revenue guidance adjustment to the lower end of the range, the expected minimal EBITDA margin expansion of just 10 basis points reflects ongoing pressures from uncertain project revenues and commodity headwinds.

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