Safehold

SAFE · NYSE

$11.24+$0.16 (+1.44%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $11.08

SAFE analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 8 analysts over the last 12 months. 13% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy1
Hold5
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 11 analysts

Average $17.47 (+55.4% upside)

Low: $13.13
Now: $11.24
High: $25.20

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SAFE analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citizens	Oct 14, 2026	Downgrade	Market Outperform → Market Perform	—	44%
RBC Capital	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Sector Perform	$16.00 → $13.00	29%
Truist Securities	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$17.00 → $13.00	45%
JP Morgan	Sep 24, 2026	Downgrade	Neutral → Underweight	$14.00	58%
Mizuho	Sep 17, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$16.00 → $14.00	44%
Raymond James	Aug 19, 2026	Initiates	Outperform → Market Perform	—	—
Goldman Sachs	May 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$27.00 → $23.00	35%
RBC Capital	May 4, 2026	Downgrade	Outperform → Sector Perform	$18.00 → $16.00	29%
Mizuho	Mar 11, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$15.00 → $16.00	44%
RBC Capital	Feb 20, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$17.00 → $18.00	29%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Safehold is supported by a differentiated ground-lease model that sits at the top of the capital stack, offering long-duration, highly durable cash flows and strong downside protection because the land reverts to the company at lease completion or default. Its pivot away from office exposure toward multifamily and affordable housing has been accretive, with 111 multifamily assets representing about 44% of gross book value in 2Q26, multifamily exposure up over 50% in three years, and annual rent growth near 2% with CPI-linked upside potential. The company’s simplified governance after the 1Q23 iStar merger, expanding customer base, smaller and more nimble deal sizes, and valuation of 7.8x 2026E EPS versus 8.0x 2027E EPS reinforce a constructive fundamental outlook.

Bear case

Safehold is viewed negatively because its long-duration ground lease model is highly exposed to rising interest rates, and the recent move in the 10-year to 5.2% and 30-year to 5.6% raises financing costs while likely slowing CRE transaction activity. That backdrop threatens both investment volume and the $9.8B unrealized capital appreciation pool, since annual appraisals could be revised down as asset values weaken and monetization options like CARET sales become less attractive. Even with 2026 EPS held at $1.60, 2027 EPS was cut to $1.67 from $1.70 because of lower spreads, softer volumes, and weaker hotel income, reinforcing the view that the stock’s fundamentals remain rate-sensitive and fragile.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.