Saratoga Investment

SAR · NYSE

$14.21−$0.69 (−4.63%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $14.90

SAR analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 2 analysts over the last 12 months. 0% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy0
Hold2
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 7 analysts

Average $21.93 (+54.3% upside)

Low: $20.20
Now: $14.21
High: $24.15

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SAR analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
B. Riley Securities	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$22.00 → $20.00	0%
B. Riley Securities	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$23.00 → $22.00	0%
Oppenheimer	Jul 9, 2026	Maintains	Perform	$22.00 → $21.00	34%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Saratoga Investment is challenged by a F1Q27 loss of $0.42/share and a -7.1% ROE, driven by $15.0M in net losses and $18.3M of unrealized depreciation on its core portfolio, though this was partly offset by $3.2M of unrealized appreciation in its CLO and JV. Even with the $1.18/share NAV decline since 4Q26 and a dividend that exceeds estimated earnings, the company has $1.50/share of spillover income to help support payouts while projected earnings improve to $1.00/share in F2027 and $1.88/share in F2028. The positive outlook rests on the expectation that Saratoga can ultimately earn about a 9% ROE, which appears stronger than its 10% cost of equity and supports a fair value near 0.90x book value.

Bear case

Saratoga Investment is facing weakening fundamentals as F1Q27 adjusted NII per share of $0.47 missed consensus and fell 11% sequentially, while the $0.75 dividend was not covered and NAV per share declined 4.9% to $23.23 amid $0.93 of unrealized depreciation. Credit trends remain mixed to negative, with Pepper Palace written off, Exigo still on the red watchlist at 70% of cost, and management acknowledging some principal at risk, even as non-accruals improved to 1.2% of cost. The earnings outlook also looks pressured by slower net originations of about $31 million versus $101 million in F4Q26, lower portfolio yield of 9.8%, and reduced FY27 NII/share estimates to $1.90.

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