Silence Therapeutics

Bull case

• Silence Therapeutics is attractive because divesiran has a strong mechanistic rationale in PV through TMPRSS6 inhibition, with Phase 1 data showing 100% phlebotomy-free status in well-controlled patients and durable hematocrit control that supports the possibility of every-6-week or every-12-week dosing.
• The thesis is further strengthened by rusfertide’s clinical validation of the hepcidin pathway, while Silence’s potentially less frequent dosing could win share even if efficacy is only comparable, and KOL checks suggest meaningful uptake against weekly dosing.
• At a roughly $300M market cap, the stock appears to underappreciate the program’s PoS and strategic value, especially given cited peak revenue potential of about $770M in PV and a benchmark NPV of $1-$2.3B for rusfertide after positive Phase 2 data.

Bear case

Silence Therapeutics is viewed negatively because its valuation depends heavily on a narrow set of clinical outcomes, especially divesiran in PV, where the downside case is described as roughly $1/sh. and the stock could trade near cash if the Phase 2 readout fails or underperforms versus rusfertide. The company also faces meaningful competitive and modality risk in a highly crowded indication, while its early-to-mid stage profile implies ongoing capital raises of $200M-$350M annually from 2026E to 2031E that could dilute shareholders. Although the TMPRSS6 mechanism has strong biologic rationale and phlebotomy reduction data are encouraging, the low 20% success assumption for divesiran, plus lingering uncertainty around zerlasiran and other programs, limits confidence in durable fundamental value.