Semtech

SMTC · NASDAQ

$136.20−$6.02 (−4.23%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $142.22

SMTC analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 16 analysts over the last 12 months. 94% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy15
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 19 analysts

Average $215.89 (+58.5% upside)

Low: $156.55
Now: $136.20
High: $315.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SMTC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$215.00	65%
Northland Capital Markets	Oct 16, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$186.00	58%
Stifel	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$220.00 → $200.00	62%
BMO Capital	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$155.00 → $230.00	71%
Stifel	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$188.00 → $220.00	62%
Oppenheimer	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$200.00 → $225.00	68%
Seaport Global	Sep 23, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$200.00	48%
Northland Capital Markets	Aug 27, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$182.00	58%
Baird	Aug 27, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$225.00 → $300.00	60%
Morgan Stanley	Aug 26, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$175.00 → $195.00	56%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Semtech is positioned for stronger fundamentals as its data center exposure has accelerated from about 5% of sales a couple of years ago to an expected level above 40% exiting the year, driven by 800G and 1.6T optical ramps, ACC, and LPO adoption at hyperscale customers. Management’s cited share gains are compelling, with 800G TIA share above 50% from under 20% two years ago and 1.6T share expected to reach a similar level by year-end, while revenue guidance and recent results both beat expectations on robust demand. The outlook is further supported by LoRa’s expansion to about $250 million annually, 60% growth, and gross margin improvement toward a 7-handle after the cellular module divestiture, which should leave a higher-margin pure-play analog semiconductor business.

Bear case

Semtech is exposed to a highly cyclical semiconductor market, making revenue and margins vulnerable to downturns in macroeconomic conditions, shifts in inventory levels at customers and distributors, and slower-than-expected adoption of data center products. Its outlook is further pressured by competitive share loss, potential failure to realize expected synergies and growth from the Sierra Wireless acquisition, and the risk of reduced spending by the top four hyperscalers on datacenter infrastructure. Heavy dependence on Asia-based supply partners and revenue concentration in the Asia Pacific region also heighten exposure to tariffs, export restrictions, capacity constraints, and geopolitical disruptions.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.