Space Exploration Technologies

SPCX · NASDAQ

$147.79−$0.17 (−0.11%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $147.96

SPCX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 37 analysts over the last 12 months. 78% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy28
Hold7
Underperform0
Sell1

12-month price target · 39 analysts

Average $232.82 (+57.5% upside)

Low: $101.00
Now: $147.79
High: $840.00

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SPCX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Macquarie	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$250.00	47%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$230.00 → $275.00	64%
Barclays	Oct 9, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$254.00	26%
TD Cowen	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$200.00	22%
Susquehanna	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$144.00 → $173.00	56%
Macquarie	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$250.00	47%
TD Cowen	Sep 29, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$200.00	55%
Deutsche Bank	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$235.00	28%
CLSA	Sep 28, 2026	Initiates	Outperform	$250.00	—
MoffettNathanson	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$131.00 → $142.00	—

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

SpaceX is supported by a powerful blend of scalable launch leadership, Starlink’s cash generation, and emerging AI infrastructure monetization. Its space business retains an unmatched technology gap, while Starlink’s connectivity platform benefits from high-barrier, fixed-cost economics that can expand margins as subscriber and enterprise adoption rises, with total connectivity revenue estimated at $17B in 2026E and $85B by 2031E. The positive outlook is further reinforced by AI compute leasing and Grok/Cursor adoption, with AI revenue projected to rise from $19.4B in 2026 to $79.5B in 2027 and $155.1B in 2028, supported by vertical integration, strong contract wins, and Starship-enabled capacity expansion.

Bear case

SpaceX is being viewed pessimistically because its newest growth pillars depend on highly uncertain execution: Starship must scale toward 1,000+ launches per year, launch costs must fall toward $270/kg, and management’s 5-10GW capacity ambitions could still land near the low end at 6.0GW by ’27. The thesis is further weakened by evidence that AI monetization may lag buildout, with $15.8B of AI segment capex in the June quarter but no mention of the orbital DC program in the first quarterly report as a public company, while the AI segment’s 2Q26 ad revenue fell ~14% y/y to $367MM. Connectivity also faces structural headwinds from spectrum physics, dense-market competition, lower-ARPU geographies, and regulatory and supply-chain risks that could keep margins and valuation multiples under pressure.

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