SPS Commerce

SPSC · NASDAQ

$87.99+$2.57 (+3.01%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 5:03 PM ET

Prev close $85.42

SPSC analyst rating

HoldConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 29% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy2
Hold4
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 14 analysts

Average $76.56 (−13.0% downside)

Low: $59.59
Now: $87.99
High: $108.15

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

SPSC analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Citigroup	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$82.00 → $99.00	67%
Stifel	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$70.00 → $85.00	38%
Needham	Aug 19, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$75.00 → $100.00	38%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$57.00 → $59.00	33%
Cantor Fitzgerald	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$60.00 → $70.00	54%
Stifel	Jul 31, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$60.00 → $70.00	38%
Citigroup	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$76.00 → $82.00	67%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 21, 2026	Downgrade	Equal-Weight → Underweight	$70.00 → $57.00	33%
DA Davidson	Jul 1, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$55.00	58%
Citigroup	May 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$84.00 → $76.00	67%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

SPS Commerce is viewed positively because management expects a quick return to high single-digit growth, with potential to reach double digits as enablement campaigns normalize, tariff-related headwinds fade, and cross-sell improves. The company’s core fundamentals remain attractive: 1Q revenue of $192.1M came in slightly below consensus, but adjusted gross margin of 70.8% and adjusted EBITDA margin of 30% showed strong profitability and leverage, while recurring revenue customers remained stable in the 1P business. The divestiture of the 3P business and the rollout of Max to 40k customers, plus agentic onboarding that could shorten implementation from months to seven days for larger customers, support a more predictable model with better margin expansion and upside in FY27.

Bear case

SPS Commerce is facing a deteriorating fundamental backdrop as 2025 was challenged by macro tariff swings that delayed new deals, forced customers to right-size contracts, and contributed to the loss of 250 net but small customers in 2Q, while its pipeline entering 2026 was described as lower than normal. The company also cut its 2026 revenue guide to $796M-$802M, below consensus at the midpoint, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of downward growth resets and signaling weaker confidence in new logo growth and attrition improvement. Although the sale of the 3P revenue recovery business removed a troubled asset, the expected ~$20M loss, the decline in recurring revenue customers, and ongoing dependence on upsell, acquisitions, and a rapidly changing technology environment make sustained acceleration harder to underwrite.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.