Third Coast Bancshares

TCBX · NYSE

$41.35+$0.70 (+1.72%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Prev close $40.65

TCBX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 5 analysts over the last 12 months. 80% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 9 analysts

Average $48.96 (+18.4% upside)

Low: $40.40
Now: $41.35
High: $56.70

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TCBX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
StoneX	Oct 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$54.00 → $56.00	39%
StoneX	Sep 25, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$54.00	39%
Piper Sandler	Aug 27, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$53.00	67%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$45.00 → $48.00	82%
Stephens & Co.	Apr 24, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$46.00 → $45.00	63%
Raymond James	Apr 7, 2026	Upgrade	Market Perform → Outperform	$45.00	61%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Jan 26, 2026	Maintains	Market Perform	$43.00 → $45.00	82%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Oct 30, 2025	Maintains	Market Perform	$42.00 → $43.00	82%
Stephens & Co.	Oct 28, 2025	Maintains	Overweight	$45.00 → $46.00	63%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

Third Coast Bancshares is favored because its Texas-focused commercial banking franchise is compounding through strong C&I loan growth, rising low-cost core deposits, and a favorable funding mix that has supported a 3.83% NIM in 2Q26 and a 2Q26 deposit cost decline to 3.04%. The outlook is further strengthened by pristine credit quality, net recoveries in the past two quarters, and a disciplined management team that has repeatedly used M&A and talent additions to expand market share while preserving relationship-based underwriting. Recent and pending transactions, including the ~$240M Great Plains deal and the Third Coast Commercial Capital sale for about $27.5M, should improve deposits, profitability, and capital efficiency, supporting double-digit TBVPS growth and ROA around 1.2% to 1.3%.

Bear case

Third Coast Bancshares is viewed negatively because its earnings remain highly exposed to spread compression: it is primarily a spread lender, its cost of interest-bearing funding is slightly higher than peers, and a faster or deeper Fed easing cycle would pressure earning asset yields and margin. Credit quality is also a concern, as criticized loans were 1.89% of loans at the end of 2Q26, or $100.6M, with recent migration tied to relationship-specific issues and CRE downgrades that could require higher provisioning than modeled. In addition, fee income has been below average over time, and a prolonged Texas slowdown, poor M&A execution, or multiple compression across bank stocks could further limit growth and valuation support.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.