Transmedics Group

TMDX · NASDAQ

$74.75+$3.15 (+4.40%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $71.60

TMDX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 13 analysts over the last 12 months. 62% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy8
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 13 analysts

Average $105.06 (+40.5% upside)

Low: $65.65
Now: $74.75
High: $141.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TMDX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Canaccord Genuity	Oct 13, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$95.00 → $94.00	72%
Barclays	Oct 7, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$120.00	68%
TD Cowen	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$120.00	48%
UBS	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$80.00 → $77.00	43%
Piper Sandler	Aug 5, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$120.00 → $100.00	43%
Needham	Aug 3, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$142.00 → $106.00	45%
UBS	Jul 28, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$80.00	—
Evercore ISI Group	Jul 6, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$100.00 → $90.00	61%
TD Cowen	Jul 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$120.00	48%
Canaccord Genuity	Jun 30, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$124.00	44%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

TransMedics Group is viewed positively because its differentiated OCS platform is still expanding share in a large, underpenetrated transplant market while also enlarging the addressable opportunity by making more donor organs usable. The company generated $605 million of total sales in 2025, up 37% from 2024, and 2026 trends point to continued momentum as May transplant activity and flight data rebounded sharply, supporting estimates near $749 million and a 32.3% OCS share gain. The bullish thesis is reinforced by multiple 2027 catalysts—ENHANCE Part B, DENOVO, CHOPS, Italy, and OCS Kidney—that could convert today’s heavy R&D and infrastructure spending into stronger revenue growth and operating leverage.

Bear case

TransMedics Group is facing a more fragile fundamental backdrop as delays in clinical programs, including CHOPS acceleration and complications around ENHANCE Part B and DENOVO structures, have extended spending without producing the expected revenue contribution. The company also contends with gross margin pressure, with Product GM down 400 bps y/y and Service GM down 300 bps y/y, while higher lease-related interest expense lifts FY26 total interest expense to $28.8M and reduces FY26/FY27 adjusted EPS estimates to $1.86 and $3.05. At the same time, reimbursement uncertainty, limited product concentration in OCS technology, customer concentration, and potential OPO modernization disruption create meaningful risk that revenue growth and market acceptance may undershoot expectations.

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