Toll Brothers

TOL · NYSE

$135.50+$4.38 (+3.34%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:56 PM ET

Prev close $131.12

TOL analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 17 analysts over the last 12 months. 82% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy14
Hold2
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 17 analysts

Average $175.27 (+29.3% upside)

Low: $123.22
Now: $135.50
High: $204.75

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TOL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
StoneX	Oct 16, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$165.00	33%
Citigroup	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$179.00 → $168.00	56%
RBC Capital	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$158.00 → $148.00	59%
Melius Research	Oct 6, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$179.00	—
Barclays	Oct 6, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$122.00 → $118.00	52%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 1, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$159.00	29%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 25, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$191.00 → $184.00	49%
Keefe, Bruyette & Woods	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$161.00 → $170.00	51%
Citigroup	Aug 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$176.00 → $179.00	56%
Truist Securities	Aug 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$165.00 → $170.00	0%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Toll Brothers is supported by its luxury positioning, where management says the high end has not shown relative weakness and buyers remain insulated by cash usage, low leverage, and wealth effects, helping demand stay resilient despite a tough operating backdrop. The company also delivered a strong F2Q with EPS of $2.72 versus $2.55 expected, gross margin ex-interest of 26.2% versus about 25.5% guidance, and roughly $10.6 billion in homebuilding revenue in CY’25, reinforcing operating leverage from its affluent customer base. Its differentiated land portfolio, over 60 markets across 24 states, and expected 8% community count growth support further margin durability and earnings expansion into 2027.

Bear case

Toll Brothers is facing a fundamental slowdown as FY3Q26 EPS of $2.97 fell 20% y/y, driven by an 8% decline in home sale revenue to $2,652 million, a 170 bps drop in home sale gross margin, and deliveries of 2,662 that missed expectations and were down 10% y/y. The company’s high-end positioning also leaves it exposed to weaker demand and pricing in coastal CA and NYC, delayed closings from high-margin communities, and reduced affluent buyer appetite amid economic uncertainty. Although land purchases of about $452 million for 2,784 lots imply a $162K per lot cost and may support future ASPs, rising land costs and a tougher housing market threaten margins, earnings quality, and capital efficiency.

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