Trex

TREX · NYSE

$48.79+$2.30 (+4.95%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $46.49

TREX analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 19 analysts over the last 12 months. 68% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy13
Hold4
Underperform2
Sell0

12-month price target · 21 analysts

Average $55.47 (+13.7% upside)

Low: $42.42
Now: $48.79
High: $64.05

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TREX analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Stifel	Oct 20, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$49.00 → $55.00	26%
Deutsche Bank	Oct 8, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$53.00 → $57.00	29%
Stifel	Aug 11, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$47.00 → $49.00	26%
BMO Capital	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$54.00 → $56.00	41%
Stephens & Co.	Jul 28, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$45.00 → $50.00	57%
Citigroup	Jul 15, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$43.00 → $52.00	56%
UBS	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$59.00 → $61.00	46%
DA Davidson	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$55.00	60%
Deutsche Bank	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$41.00 → $51.00	29%
B of A Securities	Jul 14, 2026	Maintains	Underperform	$42.00 → $44.00	58%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Trex Co is supported by clear top-line momentum, with preliminary 2Q sales expected at $418 million, up 8% y/y and above the high end of guidance, while adjusted EBITDA of $112 million also tracked ahead of consensus. Management’s higher full-year outlook, including sales of $1.215 billion-$1.250 billion and EBITDA of $335 million-$350 million, signals improving execution, stronger sell-through across channels, and expanding gross margin on higher volume despite elevated SG&A. The outlook is also reinforced by secular demand in renovation and share gains in railing, where a 6% market share leaves meaningful runway, even as the distribution realignment away from Boise Cascade introduces some near-term risk.

Bear case

Trex Co is facing a negative fundamental setup because its customer base is highly concentrated, with three companies representing 73% of Residential sales in 2025, 81% in 2024, and 72% in 2023, so the end of a long-standing distribution relationship raises meaningful execution risk. The business also remains exposed to cyclical demand, raw-material sourcing from reclaimed wood and recycled polyethylene film, and rising competition, while the loss of confidence reflected in valuation multiple compression from 35x to 13x underscores weaker sentiment around volatile earnings and market-share concerns. Near term, the shift to Specialty Building Products Group, higher training and inventory costs, and the Arkansass plant’s incremental depreciation are expected to pressure margins, with 2026 gross margin facing about a 250 bps headwind.

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