Texas Roadhouse

TXRH · NASDAQ

$169.21−$1.05 (−0.62%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:05 PM ET

Prev close $170.26

TXRH analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 23 analysts over the last 12 months. 65% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy15
Hold8
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 26 analysts

Average $221.79 (+31.1% upside)

Low: $128.77
Now: $169.21
High: $289.80

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

TXRH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$230.00 → $195.00	33%
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$212.00 → $221.00	59%
Stephens & Co.	Oct 15, 2026	Upgrade	Equal-Weight → Overweight	$205.00	24%
Jefferies	Oct 14, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$186.00 → $190.00	59%
StoneX	Oct 6, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$200.00	38%
RBC Capital	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$235.00 → $220.00	27%
Evercore ISI Group	Oct 5, 2026	Upgrade	In-Line → Outperform	$220.00 → $200.00	45%
JP Morgan	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$202.00 → $200.00	64%
Evercore ISI Group	Sep 25, 2026	Maintains	In-Line	$200.00 → $220.00	45%
Seaport Global	Sep 16, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$195.00	54%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Texas Roadhouse is favored because its category-leading scale, industry-best AUVs of $8.7M in FY25, and sustained traffic outperformance support premium economics while competitors struggle to keep pace. The company’s disciplined focus on “Legendary Food, Legendary Service” has helped drive resilient demand, with 2Q26 same-store sales up 6.2% and traffic up 3.0%, while 3QTD same-store sales also ran up 6.2% through the first five weeks. Management’s ability to expand across Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers, combined with meaningful white-space growth and improving beef-cost trends, strengthens the long-term fundamental case.

Bear case

Texas Roadhouse is facing a weaker fundamental setup as a false social-media hoax appears to have hurt traffic, contributing to a roughly 20% pullback in shares since late August and a ~500 bps deceleration in September traffic versus August. Management’s near-term outlook is also pressured by inflationary beef and commodity costs, intense casual-dining competition, and the risk that further menu price increases could dampen customer frequency, even as 3Q company-store SSS is now estimated at 5.4% versus 5.9% consensus. Expansion execution adds another layer of risk, since permitting and licensing delays can slow new unit openings, while the company lacks delivery and remains vulnerable to any dining-room disruptions.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.