Ulta Beauty

ULTA · NASDAQ

$602.90+$11.28 (+1.91%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:47 PM ET

Prev close $591.62

ULTA analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 23 analysts over the last 12 months. 78% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy17
Hold5
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 28 analysts

Average $643.81 (+6.8% upside)

Low: $505.00
Now: $602.90
High: $767.55

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ULTA analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Wells Fargo	Sep 15, 2026	Upgrade	Underweight → Equal-Weight	$450.00 → $525.00	54%
DA Davidson	Sep 14, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$625.00	62%
BMO Capital	Sep 9, 2026	Initiates	Market Perform	$580.00	74%
UBS	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$735.00 → $710.00	70%
Citigroup	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$560.00 → $580.00	44%
Barclays	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$647.00 → $645.00	55%
DA Davidson	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$585.00 → $625.00	62%
Goldman Sachs	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$648.00 → $667.00	59%
B of A Securities	Aug 28, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$685.00 → $650.00	52%
Deutsche Bank	Aug 25, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$692.00 → $695.00	58%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

Ulta Beauty is well positioned because it continues to post resilient comparable sales, including a better-than-expected 3.8% comp and a 5.3% comp beat, while e-commerce remains stronger than stores and services, fragrance, and hair care add balance to the mix. Its differentiated assortment, product authority, customer data, and event-driven traffic help it compete effectively against heavier beauty pushes at Target and Walmart, while the exit from Target’s store-within-a-store program should reduce cannibalization. Fundamentally, margin expansion looks increasingly durable as SG&A growth moderates, productivity savings of $200M by 2027 offer upside, vendor relationships are strengthening, and a $1.5B buyback underscores management confidence and capital discipline.

Bear case

Ulta Beauty is facing a weaker fundamental setup as tariffs could raise supply-chain costs, pressure retail margins, and force price increases that may reduce unit volumes. The company also remains exposed to employment softness because retail sales are positively correlated with labor trends, while faster growth in online-only and omnichannel competition could erode market share and compress margins through greater price transparency and higher fulfillment costs. Although Ulta beat consensus by $0.85 and raised EPS only $0.25-$0.31, its maintained sales and comp guide, with 2.5%-3.5% for the year and implied 1.5%-3.0% growth in the next three quarters, suggests a slowdown despite buybacks.

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