UMB Financial

UMBF · NASDAQ

$133.09+$3.44 (+2.65%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $129.65

UMBF analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 15 analysts over the last 12 months. 73% rate it a buy.

Strong buy1
Buy10
Hold4
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 18 analysts

Average $168.62 (+26.7% upside)

Low: $148.47
Now: $133.09
High: $191.10

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

UMBF analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Truist Securities	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$170.00 → $156.00	59%
RBC Capital	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$170.00 → $168.00	30%
TD Cowen	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$166.00 → $152.00	47%
JP Morgan	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$180.00 → $160.00	50%
Wells Fargo	Sep 30, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$160.00 → $147.00	62%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 28, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$190.00 → $182.00	55%
UBS	Sep 14, 2026	Initiates	Neutral	$155.00	65%
Morgan Stanley	Sep 8, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$159.00 → $190.00	55%
JP Morgan	Aug 20, 2026	Initiates	Overweight	$180.00	50%
Wells Fargo	Aug 10, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$139.00 → $160.00	62%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 17, 2026

Bull case

UMB Financial is viewed favorably because it has consistently grown loans organically at an ~11% CAGR over the past ten years while funding that growth with core deposits and keeping credit quality stable, a combination that has historically outpaced peers. Its earnings mix is especially attractive, with fee income expected to be ~27% of revenue in 2026 versus a 16% peer median, supported by scaled trust and securities processing, $565 bil. of AUA, and continued growth in institutional deposit relationships. The Heartland acquisition further expands its footprint and deposit base, while $3.2 bil. of fixed-rate loans and $2.2 bil. of securities maturing should support net interest income growth, positive operating leverage, and solid EPS expansion.

Bear case

UMB Financial is viewed negatively because its earnings are heavily tied to spread income and loan growth, leaving it exposed to a tougher interest-rate backdrop and a deteriorating macroeconomy that could raise credit costs and pressure net interest margin. The company’s balance sheet and revenue mix also make it sensitive to weaker fee income and potential loan losses if client or industry conditions soften, while its ACL ratio being more than 2.5x larger than nonaccrual loans underscores the need for conservative reserving. In addition, the Heartland integration and broader regulatory risks could disrupt expected EPS growth, and a potential December 2026 Russell 1000 migration may trigger about 4 million shares of passive selling pressure.

Information on this page is provided for informational purposes only and is not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Market data is delayed at least 15 minutes and is provided without warranty. Analyst ratings, price targets and company data come from third-party sources. Past performance does not guarantee future results.