UnitedHealth Group

UNH · NYSE

$419.26+$12.38 (+3.04%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:59 PM ET

Prev close $406.88

UNH analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 22 analysts over the last 12 months. 86% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy19
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 30 analysts

Average $482.64 (+15.1% upside)

Low: $316.13
Now: $419.26
High: $555.45

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

UNH analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
RBC Capital	Oct 20, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$478.00 → $498.00	57%
Bernstein	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$512.00 → $500.00	77%
JP Morgan	Oct 16, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$516.00 → $524.00	54%
TD Cowen	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$402.00	67%
Piper Sandler	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$502.00 → $504.00	39%
Barclays	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$441.00 → $440.00	59%
Baird	Oct 14, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$453.00 → $427.00	34%
TD Cowen	Oct 9, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$430.00 → $402.00	67%
JP Morgan	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$466.00 → $516.00	54%
Mizuho	Jul 21, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$470.00 → $493.00	69%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 21, 2026

Bull case

UnitedHealth Group is attractive because it combines massive insurance scale with a diversified Optum platform that is driving earnings resilience across Medicare Advantage, Optum Rx, Optum Health, and Optum Insight. Management’s 3Q26 execution was strong, with adjusted EPS of $4.69 versus $4.14 consensus, a 88.4% MLR, and CY26 guidance lifted for the third consecutive quarter to at least $20.50, implying at least 25.4% growth y/y. The outlook is further supported by near-top-end Medicare margins, >50% external Optum Rx membership, high-90s retention, and durable margin expansion expected through 2027 and 2028.

Bear case

UnitedHealth Group is facing a weaker fundamental setup as rising IDR, specialty drug, and provider coding costs are pressuring commercial risk bidding, while v28 risk model changes and the year 3 phase-in are disproportionately hurting its outsized RAF scores versus peers. Medicare Advantage adds further strain through accelerating cost trends, near-term legislative and reimbursement risk, intensifying competition, and the loss of Star quality strength, with 68% of members now in 4+ Star contracts versus 80% in 2027 and an estimated $13 PMPM headwind in 2028, or about $1.5 billion of revenue impact. Visibility on deferred-care medical loss ratio trends remains low, and Medicaid redetermination headwinds plus PBM regulatory scrutiny create multiple avenues for margin compression and earnings volatility.

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