US Foods Holding

USFD · NYSE

$103.00+$2.62 (+2.61%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:32 PM ET

Prev close $100.38

USFD analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 12 analysts over the last 12 months. 75% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 17 analysts

Average $115.98 (+12.6% upside)

Low: $63.07
Now: $103.00
High: $133.35

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

USFD analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
Morgan Stanley	Oct 15, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$107.00 → $111.00	48%
JP Morgan	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$108.00 → $98.00	64%
Piper Sandler	Aug 12, 2026	Maintains	Neutral	$88.00 → $108.00	64%
UBS	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$117.00 → $127.00	64%
Citigroup	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$110.00 → $124.00	71%
Guggenheim	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$115.00 → $120.00	63%
Wells Fargo	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$110.00 → $125.00	60%
BTIG	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$105.00 → $120.00	53%
TD Cowen	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$116.00 → $119.00	33%
Morgan Stanley	Jul 16, 2026	Maintains	Equal-Weight	$94.00 → $103.00	48%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 14, 2026

Bull case

US Foods Holdings is viewed positively because its independent restaurant engine is accelerating, with organic case growth of +5.0% and the best new account growth in three years, while healthcare and hospitality also posted mid-single-digit case gains. The company’s 10% share of a highly fragmented $39 billion sales business, paired with 76 distribution facilities, 14 broadline production centers, and 98 Chef’Store locations, supports continued share gains and scale advantages. Margin expansion adds further support, as gross profit dollars per case are growing faster than opex per case, and management’s FY2026 guidance calls for 4.0% to 6.0% revenue growth, 9.0% to 13.0% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 18.0% to 24.0% adjusted EPS growth.

Bear case

US Foods Holdings is exposed to cyclical demand and inflation risks that could pressure its $39 billion sales base, especially if restaurant and foodservice spending weakens or food and fuel costs rise further. Its 10% share of a fragmented industry, heavy reliance on independent restaurants and other discretionary end markets, and dependence on organic case growth leave it vulnerable if volume trends fall short of expectations. The outlook also turns cautious because planned productivity, routing, and warehouse technology initiatives may not deliver expected OpEx and COGS savings, while lower operating expense at 14.2% this year still reflects only partial offset to higher volume and selling costs.

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