Velocity Financial

VEL · NYSE

$14.81+$0.30 (+2.07%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 7:00 PM ET

Prev close $14.51

VEL analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 4 analysts over the last 12 months. 75% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy3
Hold0
Underperform1
Sell0

12-month price target · 4 analysts

Average $21.93 (+48.1% upside)

Low: $19.19
Now: $14.81
High: $24.67

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

VEL analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
BTIG	Oct 7, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$22.00 → $20.00	38%
Wells Fargo	Aug 7, 2026	Maintains	Underweight	$20.00 → $19.00	56%
BTIG	Jun 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$23.00 → $22.00	38%
Citizens	May 7, 2026	Maintains	Market Outperform	$22.00 → $23.50	44%
BTIG	Mar 17, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$23.00	27%
BTIG	Nov 21, 2025	Maintains	Buy	$23.00	27%
Citizens	Nov 7, 2025	Maintains	Market Outperform	$21.00 → $22.00	44%

The case for and against

Updated Nov 28, 2025

Bull case

Velocity Financial Inc. reported a non-warrant diluted GAAP common stock book value of $16.19 per share as of March 31, reflecting a 3.1% increase from December 31, alongside an adjusted book value of $18.50 per share. The company's total loan portfolio grew by 7.7% to $5.4 billion, indicating strong demand for its investor loans. Additionally, the resolution of $76.4 million in nonperforming loans resulted in a net gain of $1.9 million, showcasing effective management of credit risk despite a slight increase in nonperforming loans as a percentage of the portfolio.

Bear case

Velocity Financial Inc.'s net interest margin (NIM) has declined to 3.35%, down from 3.70% at the end of the previous year, indicating potential pressure on profitability. Furthermore, the company's ability to source new deals may be hampered by rising interest rates and liquidity pressures, leading to higher delinquency rates and increased defaults on its loan portfolio. As housing price appreciation shows signs of plateauing, combined with a rising blended cost of funds and declining effective portfolio yield, the company's financial outlook appears increasingly negative.

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