Warner Music Group

WMG · NASDAQ

$31.33+$0.29 (+0.93%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 20, 4:38 PM ET

Prev close $31.04

WMG analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 10 analysts over the last 12 months. 90% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy9
Hold1
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 20 analysts

Average $37.24 (+18.9% upside)

Low: $23.23
Now: $31.33
High: $48.30

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

WMG analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
StoneX	Oct 15, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$41.00	44%
UBS	Oct 1, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$42.00 → $43.00	43%
Guggenheim	Sep 29, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$36.00	54%
UBS	May 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$40.00 → $42.00	43%
JP Morgan	May 8, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$40.00 → $43.00	69%
Evercore ISI Group	May 8, 2026	Maintains	Outperform	$37.00 → $43.00	54%
Guggenheim	May 8, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$34.00 → $36.00	54%
Morgan Stanley	Apr 21, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$37.00 → $38.00	61%
Guggenheim	Mar 31, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$37.00 → $34.00	54%
Citigroup	Jan 21, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$41.00 → $40.00	60%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 15, 2026

Bull case

Warner Music Gr is supported by durable recorded-music leadership, with core subscription streaming growth of 15% in fiscal second quarter and reported subscription streaming revenue of $734 million, driven by subscriber additions, wholesale price increases, and market share gains. Its publishing arm adds resiliency through Warner Chappell’s more than 180,000 songwriters and composers and over 1 million compositions, while AI licensing and new DSP agreements create optionality for additional growth from fiscal 2027. Profitability also looks attractive, as adjusted OIBDA rose 24% with 230 basis points of margin expansion, and management’s guide for +150-200bps margin expansion in fiscal 2026 suggests further operating leverage and strong cash conversion.

Bear case

Warner Music Gr is pressured by a concentrated risk profile in which recorded music, though dominant, depends heavily on digital/streaming growth and a steady pipeline of superstar releases from artists such as Ed Sheeran, Bruno Mars, Cardi B, and Dua Lipa. Its outlook is further weakened by exposure to music piracy, foreign exchange fluctuations, and the inability to identify and sign new artists and songwriters, while the absence of live shows and tours can also dampen revenue support. Governance adds another layer of concern, since Access Industries controls 98% of voting rights with a 72% economic interest, limiting shareholder influence as Warner Chappell’s more than 180,000 songwriters and over 1 million compositions still rely on successful rights negotiations with distribution partners.

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