Olympic Steel

ZEUS · NASDAQ

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The case for and against

Updated Jul 10, 2025

Bull case

Olympic Steel Inc is positioned favorably due to a projected increase in volumes of 5-6% in 1Q25, driven by anticipated growth in key end markets such as energy and industrial machinery, which account for a significant portion of their revenue. The company expects a notable rebound in Carbon Flat profitability in the upcoming quarters, with estimates suggesting earnings per share rising to $0.84 in 2Q25 and $0.79 in 3Q25, reflecting improvements in pricing and demand dynamics. Additionally, recent structural profit improvements through mergers and acquisitions, alongside ongoing investments in automation, are expected to enhance gross margins and yield benefits, contributing to a positive outlook for the business.

Bear case

Olympic Steel Inc. is facing a challenging financial outlook, with expected earnings in the fourth quarter of 2024 anticipated to decline across all segments due to lower average selling prices (ASP), decreasing volumes, and seasonality effects, which collectively signal weakening demand. The revised guidance estimates a reduction in the company's EBITDA for 2024 to $4.20 billion, reflecting a downward trend in profitability, particularly driven by diminished performance in the Steel and Fabrication sectors. Furthermore, anticipated declines in order volumes and weaker demand across major end markets, alongside an unplanned operational outage, raise concerns about the company's ability to recover in the near term.

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