Ermenegildo Zegna NV

ZGN · NYSE

$13.48−$0.37 (−2.67%)TodayMarket closed · Oct 23, 7:30 PM ET

Prev close $13.85

ZGN analyst rating

BuyConsensus of 7 analysts over the last 12 months. 57% rate it a buy.

Strong buy0
Buy4
Hold3
Underperform0
Sell0

12-month price target · 15 analysts

Average $15.26 (+13.2% upside)

Low: $13.13
Now: $13.48
High: $17.92

Upgrades and downgrades

The latest rating actions, newest first

ZGN analyst upgrades, downgrades and rating actions
Firm	Date	Action	Rating	Price target	Hit rate
TD Cowen	Oct 23, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00 → $16.00	51%
HSBC	Oct 6, 2026	Initiates	Buy	$16.00	100%
UBS	Oct 5, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.50 → $15.40	100%
UBS	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.40 → $15.50	100%
TD Cowen	Sep 4, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$17.00 → $15.00	51%
TD Cowen	Jul 24, 2026	Maintains	Buy	$15.00 → $17.00	51%
JP Morgan	Jun 30, 2026	Maintains	Overweight	$12.50 → $14.00	50%
Goldman Sachs	Jun 17, 2026	Downgrade	Buy → Neutral	$13.30 → $14.00	—
TD Cowen	May 20, 2026	Upgrade	Hold → Buy	$13.00 → $15.00	51%
TD Cowen	May 1, 2026	Maintains	Hold	$11.00 → $13.00	51%

The case for and against

Updated Oct 23, 2026

Bull case

Ermenegildo Zegna is supported by a durable core brand that delivered 1H organic revenue growth of +9.3%, with core Zegna up +13.9% and DTC momentum of +15.8%, while group Adj. EBIT margin held at 7.5% and gross margin stayed stable despite FX headwinds. The outlook is further strengthened by management’s reaffirmed FY26 expectations and FY27 framework of roughly €2.2-2.4bn in revenue and €250-300mm in Adj. EBIT, which suggest intact earnings power as operating leverage and a richer DTC mix support margin expansion. China’s acceleration to +8.6% organic in 2Q and continued market share gains add confidence, while Tom Ford’s improving traction and Thom Browne’s near-breakeven FY26 target provide additional upside as portfolio drag gradually eases.

Bear case

Ermenegildo Zegna is facing a negative setup because its luxury demand remains exposed to a weak macro backdrop, currency pressure, and softer consumer spending, all of which can compress sales and margins. Wholesale declines are a major drag, with wholesale down 17% organic in 1Q and management expecting wholesale to remain negative in FY26 across Zegna, Thom Browne, and Tom Ford, even as DTC reaches about 85% of branded revenues. Additional downside comes from uncertain China recovery, continued pressure in Europe, and the risk that a longer wholesale rationalization and higher SG&A spending delay operating leverage and profitability improvement.

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