Senate
Ken Paxton Margin of Victory in Texas Senate General Election November 3 2026
Ken Paxton Margin of Victory in Texas Senate General Election 2026 · Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open
$19 vol.
About this market
Traders price 1 at 39%, ahead of 2 at 32%.
The market has $19 in volume across 9 trades; the most recent was on Oct 22, 2026.
Trading closes on Dec 6, 2026. The result is confirmed by ForecastEx.
This Contract resolves based on whether Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than the applicable percentage-point margin, as reported by the Texas Secretary of State Elections Division.
Rules and timeline
Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.
- 1Resolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 1 percentage points.
- 2Resolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 2 percentage points.
- 3Resolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 3 percentage points.
- 4Resolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 4 percentage points.
- 5Resolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 5 percentage points.
- 6Resolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 6 percentage points.
Show rules for all 7 outcomesShow fewer
- 7Resolves Yes if Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate General Election by more than 7 percentage points.
Result confirmed by ForecastEx.
- Trading opened
- Jul 20, 2026
- Trading closes
- Dec 6, 2026
- Expected result
- Dec 6, 2026
- Expected payout
- Dec 6, 2026
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Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.