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Control of Congress

Democratic Seats in the Senate

Nov 3, 2026 · Trading open

$228 vol.
Show all 12 outcomes
  • 50
    No trades yet
    YesNo
  • More than 53 seats
    No trades yet
    YesNo
  • More than 54 seats
    No trades yet
    YesNo
  • More than 55 seats
    No trades yet
    YesNo

About this market

Traders price 51 at 54%, ahead of 52 at 35%.

The market has $228 in volume across 5 trades; the most recent was on Oct 30, 2026.

Trading closes on Jan 3, 2027, 8:00 AM ET. The result is confirmed by United States Congress.

The underlying is the number of seats held by the specified party in the specifed chamber following the election detailed in the contract as reported by the United States Congress.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • 51Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 51 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • 52Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 52 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • 44Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 44 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • 45Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 45 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • 46Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 46 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • 47Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 47 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
Show rules for all 12 outcomes
  • 48Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 48 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • 49Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 49 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • 50Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold at least 50 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election?” is yes.
  • More than 53 seatsResolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold more than 53 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election? (Congress) (Capitol Hill) (congressional control)?” is yes.
  • More than 54 seatsResolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold more than 54 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election? (Congress) (Capitol Hill) (congressional control)?” is yes.
  • More than 55 seatsResolves Yes if the answer to “Will Democrats hold more than 55 seats in the Senate following the 2026 election? (Congress) (Capitol Hill) (congressional control)?” is yes.

Result confirmed by United States Congress.

Trading opened
Nov 17, 2025
Trading closes
Jan 3, 2027, 8:00 AM ET
Expected result
Jan 3, 2027
Expected payout
Jan 3, 2027

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.