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Climate Change

What will US carbon dioxide emmissions be?

United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions 2026 · Dec 31, 2026 · Trading open

$2.1K vol.
Show all 22 outcomes

About this market

Traders price 4100 at 97%, ahead of 4150 at 96%.

The market has $2.1K in volume across 315 trades; the most recent was on Oct 20, 2026.

Trading closes on Apr 30, 2027. The result is confirmed by Energy Information Administration.

Carbon Dioxide is an important greenhouse gas and thought to be one of the major contributors to anthropogenic climate change, a major societal challenge. US Carbon Dioxide emissions estimate the amount of Carbon Dioxide emitted in the United States in a calendar year.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • 4100Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,100 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4150Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,150 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4200Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,200 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4250Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,250 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4350Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,350 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4400Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,400 million metric tons in 2026.
Show rules for all 22 outcomes
  • 4450Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,450 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4500Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,500 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4550Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,550 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4600Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,600 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4650Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,650 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4700Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,700 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4750Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,750 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4800Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,800 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4300Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,300 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4850Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,850 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4900Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,900 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4950Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,950 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 5000Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 5,000 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 5050Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 5,050 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 4050Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 4,050 million metric tons in 2026.
  • 5100Resolves Yes if US carbon dioxide emmissions exceeds 5,100 million metric tons in 2026.

Result confirmed by Energy Information Administration.

Trading opened
Oct 1, 2024
Trading closes
Apr 30, 2027
Expected result
Apr 30, 2027
Expected payout
May 3, 2027

More United States Carbon Dioxide Emissions markets

Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.