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Climate Change

Global Sea Level December 2026

Global Sea Level 2026 · Dec 31, 2026 · Trading open

$4K vol.
Show all 19 outcomes

About this market

Traders price Above 87.5 at 99%, ahead of Above 90 at 95%.

The market has $4K in volume across 801 trades; the most recent was on Oct 23, 2026.

Trading closes on Dec 31, 2026. The result is confirmed by NASA.

Global mean sea level is an important climate indicator, providing information on how the ocean is warming and how much land ice is melting. The NASA JASON satellite measures sea level data for the entire planet every 10 days.

Rules and timeline

Each outcome is its own contract. A Yes contract pays $1 if its outcome happens and $0 if not; a No contract pays the reverse. Because the contracts trade separately, their chances don't have to add up to 100%.

  • Above 87.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 87.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 90Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 90 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 95Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 95 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 100Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 100 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 102.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 102.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 92.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 92.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
Show rules for all 19 outcomes
  • Above 97.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 97.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 105Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 105 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 113Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 113 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 115Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 115 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 117.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 117.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 107.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 107.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 120Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 120 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 122.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 122.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 110Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 110 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 125Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 125 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 127.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 127.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 130Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 130 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.
  • Above 132.5Resolves Yes if the answer to “Will NASA report the Global Mean Sea Level as greater than 132.5 mm above the 1993 baseline on December 31, 2026?” is yes.

Result confirmed by NASA.

Trading opened
Oct 1, 2024
Trading closes
Dec 31, 2026
Expected result
Dec 31, 2026
Expected payout
Jan 4, 2027

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Other dates in this series

Prices are the last trades on the ForecastEx exchange and can be delayed by about ten minutes. A chance is the price of a Yes contract, not a forecast by Aries. Event contracts involve risk, including the loss of the full amount paid. Information on this page is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.